When To Refinance Your Mortgage

Mortgage Rate Trends

It’s no secret that homebuyers from 2023, 2024, and 2025 may be eager to refinance. With mortgage rates dropping in 2025 and expected to fall even further, you might be wondering if now is the right time. Yesterday, on September 17th, 2025, Jerome Powell announced the first 0.25% rate cut of 2025, and the Fed as a whole offered lukewarm guidance about additional cuts this year. 

Glass half full: Right now, mortgage rates are near their lowest levels in the past three years and nearly match the lows from 1970 to 2001. 

Glass half empty: They are still well above the sub-3% rates of 2020 and 2021.

Why Is Everyone Focused on the Federal Funds Rate?

One common misconception about mortgage rates is that they are directly linked to the Federal Funds Rate, which is set by the Federal Reserve. Want to learn more about the federal funds rate? Check out this explainer from Investopedia. The essence of it is that the Fed uses the federal funds rate to influence bank lending, which in turn affects the money supply available to consumers. When *cheap* money is accessible, consumers tend to invest more aggressively and spend more. If left unchecked, this can result in inflation, which increases the costs of goods and services and may even lead to financial bubbles like the one seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Following the economic stimulus triggered by Covid-19, the Fed sensed the economy was *overheating* due to the 0% federal funds rate and took steps to ease us into a “soft landing” a.k.a. a sustainable reality. A prime example of our economy starting to overheat was the surge in home values, as well as the GameStop trading frenzy, which we wrote about in an earlier blog.

What Mortgage Rates Actually Track

What’s important to know is that the 30-year mortgage rate does not move in lockstep with the federal funds rate. Just because the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, announces a 0.25% rate decrease doesn’t mean the 30-year mortgage will drop by 0.25%. It’s important to recognize that determining the mortgage rate is not an exact science. There are variables, many of them. And certainly, the federal funds rate has a role. 

Borrowers should consider the 10-Year Treasury as a gauge for where 30-Year Mortgage rates are headed. As shown below, mortgage rates tend to be 2 to 2.5 percentage points higher than the 10-Year Treasury yields. This then leads us to the question: if mortgage rates follow 10-Year Treasury rates, then how are 10-Year Treasury rates determined?

Enter the 10-Year Treasury Yield

If we think of the federal funds rate as an educated guess on how to best drive the economy forward and a proactive measure, then the 10-Year Treasury yield represents the market’s response and reaction to that direction. Scorsese makes the movie, and the audience must decide what to make of it. And we’ll run with the movie analogy even further.

Director = Fed Chair

Professional Critics = Fed Board of Governors

Supply and Demand = Theatrical vs. streaming release

Market Sentiment = Pre-release buzz

Inflation Expectations = Cost to see today vs. tomorrow

Term Premium = Can you afford to have the ending ruined for you? 

Geopolitical Events = Actor nutjob says something they shouldn’t have

Wrap all of these together, and you have investor/consumer sentiment for 10-Year Treasury rates and renting/owning a movie!

So, Is Now The Time to Refinance?

Refinancing is decided on a case-by-case basis, depending on your current rate, refinance terms, and how long you plan to stay in the home. However, we do recommend a general rule of thumb. Are you lowering your rate by 0.50% and is your break-even point on upfront costs within 18 months or less? 

The Break-Even Point

Typically, refinancing your mortgage comes with an upfront cost. And while that’s not always true, lenders typically want something in return when it comes to doing a lot of paperwork to save you money. Therefore, you have to know what your one-time cost is to lower the interest rate for the life of your mortgage. For example, if it costs you $2,000 to refinance your mortgage and refinancing saves you $200 a month on your principal and interest, that results in a 10-month breakeven point. As long as you plan to stay in the home long enough to realize those monthly savings, it’s a sweet deal. And this is a good reminder that ALL you’re looking at is your principal and interest, not your escrow, which may include insurance and taxes. Your mortgage rate isn’t affected by how much you owe in property taxes or homeowners’ insurance, so it’s best to keep the comparison as clear as possible. 

Let’s also imagine you refinance, and before you hit your break-even point, rates drop again, giving you another chance to refinance. What do you do? Another part of staying in the home long enough to see those monthly savings is considering whether you reasonably expect to be able to refinance again before reaching the break-even point. And this is where following Federal Reserve guidance can be helpful. As discussed, it’s not the primary driver of mortgage rates, but it is a part of the overall picture. So if they are signaling several subsequent rate cuts, it likely makes sense to wait until those are completed before taking action. Ultimately, if unexpected rate cuts occur, you’ll fall back on the same rule of thumb and treat the original refinance cost as a sunk cost. Saving money in the long run remains the goal, even if you misjudge the timing slightly. 

Exercise Caution When Refinancing

Like most things, there are certain things to look out for when it comes to refinancing. 

Upfront Costs

Don’t be fooled: just because there are no upfront costs on a refinance, it doesn’t mean there are no costs at all. When you roll costs into the loan, your monthly payments will go up. That’s why it’s crucial to not only know your mortgage rate, but also your Annual Percentage Rate (APR), which includes the total cost of the loan beyond just the borrowed amount. 

Existing vs. New Lender

Even if your current lender is eager to work with you on a refinance, don’t assume those are the best terms you’ll get. While they are certainly a natural first step in inquiring about refinancing, remember that mortgages are sold all the time. You should compare their offer with what a new lender can offer. I suggest checking with both a local and a national company. There are also rate comparison sites online if you don’t mind receiving spam emails and calls. 

Amortization Schedule

Let’s say you’re a few years into a 30-year mortgage and refinance to another 30-year loan. By definition, you’ll be making payments for over 30 years. But if you’re refinancing to a lower interest rate, it doesn’t matter how many extra years you add to the loan. You’ll still come out ahead over the life of the loan since you’re just lowering your existing balance’s interest rate, which results in less interest paid. Understand that you don’t necessarily have to refinance to another 30-year loan, though. You might try to match your remaining payments to 15, 20, or 25 years, whichever is closest to your original number of payments left. Some lenders will even match the exact number of years you have left on your existing loan. The other option is to refinance into a 30-year loan but keep making your same monthly payment, which effectively prepays your loan and saves you interest over the life of the loan.

When a Recast Might Be Beneficial

There’s a lesser-known approach to traditional refinancing called recasting. It’s for borrowers who can make a lump-sum payment of 10% or more of their loan balance. Although your interest rate won’t change, your lender might let you make a big payment toward your balance and reamortize the loan, resulting in a lower monthly payment going forward. As a result, you’ll keep your current payment schedule with a lower monthly payment rather than shortening the term of your loan. So this is a way of saving today instead of saving tomorrow.

Great Day Louisiana: 2025 Mortgage Trends (originally aired on September 17th, 2025)

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Fiduciary, fee-only, Certified Financial Planner, Mike Turi

Mike Turi, CFP® APMA™ is the Founder and a Lead Financial Planner at Upbeat Wealth, a fee-only firm based in New Orleans and serving clients virtually across the country. He specializes in providing straightforward financial guidance to ambitious young families as they navigate life’s many milestones.

Do you have questions about what we shared in this post, or anything else in general? Feel free to schedule a free consultation or drop us a line!

Sign up for our newsletter (at the bottom of this page) to stay up to speed on our Upbeat Insight.

Disclaimer: All content in this article is provided for educational, general information, and illustration purposes only. None of the information is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice. Nor is it a recommendation for purchase or sale of any security, or investment advisory services. We encourage you to consult with a financial planner, accountant, and/or legal professional for advice on your specific situation. Read our full disclaimer here.

Upsizing Your Home

The Benefits of Upgrading Your Home

Is this not your first rodeo when it comes to buying a home, and you’re ready to get back on the horse? This blog is for you. It’s natural for young families to want to upsize their homes at some point. Common reasons for upgrading include:

  • More Space

  • Better School District

  • Higher Paying Job

  • Closer to Free Childcare, I mean, Family

Sometimes it’s fashion over function. You just want a bigger or more expensive place to live. For many Americans, a home symbolizes a level of wealth. Ironically, it can also become the greatest barrier to a family living a truly wealthy life.

Weighing the Pros and Cons

Some trade-offs, such as increased income, public schooling, or free childcare, may result in a net neutral or positive cash flow outcome, thereby avoiding the need for lifestyle adjustments. Others may result in a diminished ability to cover current expenditures and lifestyle goals. Examples of expenses and goals that could be negatively affected by a larger mortgage and escrow:

  • Education Funding

  • Retirement

  • Travel

  • Everyday Pleasures

  • Work-Life Balance

As a financial planner, it isn’t our job to plansplain what your values should be! Yes, I did just invent the word planspain. Our role is to help you clarify your priorities, establish boundaries, and evaluate trade-offs, enabling you to make the most informed decision based on your specific situation. So, what are some healthy boundaries when deciding what a reasonable amount to spend on a new home is? There are several handfuls of rules of thumb from asset-based and income-based approaches for determining maximum home affordability. I will focus on our preferred guideline, which has been adjusted to be more conservative than the lender’s standard.

Enter the 25/33 Rule, Adjusted Down from the 28/36 Rule

We recommend the 25/33 Rule, which states you shouldn’t spend more than 25% of your pre-tax monthly income on housing and no more than 33% on all debts. Other factors, such as family wealth, lifestyle, schooling costs, and overall assets, also influence your financial flexibility beyond this rule. Still, everything else being equal, going over the 25/33 Rule often causes families earning less than $200,000 to feel financially strained in other areas. 

Let’s examine sample cash flows from families whose housing costs are 10%, 20%, and 30% of their pre-tax income.

Case Scenario 1: Millennial Family with 10% Total Housing Cost

Case Scenario 2: Millennial Family with 20% Total Housing Cost

Case Scenario 3: Millennial Family with 30% Total Housing Cost

In the above scenarios, the total housing cost includes not only your mortgage (principal + interest), but also property tax, homeowners insurance, and maintenance costs. For maintenance, we always use the 1% rule, which recommends setting aside 1% of your house value annually for upkeep. As your total housing costs progress from 10% to 20% to 30% of your salary, watch that cash flow dry up. Your ability to save for your future or your children’s becomes increasingly difficult. Travel, Gift, and Education budgets could all find themselves on the chopping block. Depending on your liquid assets, you might have limited options to act or respond during times of uncertainty or when your life becomes more complicated. 

The Risk of Your Primary Residence Equaling Your Net Worth

You also wouldn’t be alone if you considered your primary home your most valuable asset and the key to building wealth. Here are the risks:

  • Lack of Diversification. While it CAN work out, putting all your eggs in one basket is a risky approach. 

  • Illiquidity and Inconvenience. If you need to take money out of the home, it could be expensive in the form of a loan. Or, you might need to sell the home and move entirely.

  • Surprise Maintenance Costs. It’s important to remember that your Principal, Interest, Tax, and Insurance is the MINIMUM amount you’ll pay. 

  • Mortgage Amortization: If you are forced to sell, you may not have built a meaningful amount of equity in the home. Depending on your interest rate, a significant portion of your mortgage payment goes to the lender as interest during the first 5 years. The payments typically don’t shift to mainly principal until 10 to 15 years into the repayment period.

The Danger in Upsizing Your Home Before Milestones, Specifically KIDS

The times when upsizing your home presents the biggest hurdles: 

  • Before you have kids, if that’s the path you’re choosing. 
  • As you are paying for childcare. 

The cost of raising children alters not just your cash flow but your outlook on life. Locking yourself into a bigger home too early, especially one at the upper edge of what you can reasonably afford, can cause financial problems if it’s not part of your long-term plan. And while you might believe you’re preparing for that moment, it’s hard to understand the unknown. It’s worth thinking about how long you stayed in your *starter* home before life changed and you began reviewing options to upgrade. Milestones tend to prompt us to reassess our lifestyles.

Renting vs. Selling Your Previous Home

If you are relocating or upsizing and wondering whether to keep your previous home as a rental, you’re not alone. We get this question often. As of the published date of this blog, mortgage rates are approximately double what they were 3 years ago. 

Here are the two questions you need to ask yourself. 

  1. Will the rental income you receive actually cover not only your minimum financial costs like principal, interest, taxes, and insurance, but also generate a surplus for unexpected expenses such as vacancies and maintenance? 

  2. Do you actually have any desire to be a landlord? If you used to worry about spending evenings and weekends on home maintenance projects and repairs for your family, now imagine doing that for complete strangers on their schedule, while you’re commuting. And oh, by the way, you’re likely moving into a bigger home, which will also require a greater time commitment for maintenance. 

If you’re answer is “no” to either of these questions, you should highly consider selling your previous home. Otherwise, you’re really just speculating that you’ll get a better price in 1 – 3 years. That’s a complete dice roll. And if you don’t sell within 3 years, you miss out on a significant tax exclusion where your primary residence is exempt from capital gains tax. The Capital Gains Exclusion for Primary Homes allows you to exclude the first $250,000 of gain for an individual and $500,000 for a married couple filing jointly from being subject to capital gains tax. 

Run. Those. Numbers. Then Actually Implement It!

When analyzing upgrading your home, the same principles apply as when you purchased your first home. And now, you’re a seasoned homeowner. You know that the cost of property tax and insurance only go in one direction, up! You understand that maintenance and upkeep costs are not zero, and they are generally expensive and a hassle. You will not mistake your approved borrowing amount with how much home you can afford. 

But until you lay out your cash flow and see the trade-offs firsthand, you are blindfolding yourself when it comes to making this decision. My recommendation is to live within the confines of your new projected budget for several months to ensure it’s a worthwhile tradeoff. Are you willing to make the sacrifices necessary to your current lifestyle when it comes to upsizing to a more expensive home? Otherwise, you risk falling into the biggest wealth trap: becoming house poor.

Need a refresher on what total housing costs look like? Last month (May 2025), Lead Planner Eddy Jurgielewicz shared some helpful advice on how much money you need to buy a home. He also included one of our in-house home purchase calculators to help prospective buyers understand the total cost of homeownership. While the calculator was an exclusive offering for our newsletter subscribers, you can view the excerpt about approaching homeownership from Eddy in this LinkedIn post. Want to avoid missing out on future exclusive content? Sign up for our newsletter using this link: subscribepage.io/eXkcnF

Great Day Louisiana: Weighing Your Home Buying Options (originally aired on April 28th, 2025)

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Fiduciary, fee-only, Certified Financial Planner, Mike Turi

Mike Turi, CFP® APMA™ is the Founder and a Lead Financial Planner at Upbeat Wealth, a fee-only firm based in New Orleans and serving clients virtually across the country. He specializes in providing straightforward financial guidance to ambitious young families as they navigate life’s many milestones.

Do you have questions about what we shared in this post, or anything else in general? Feel free to schedule a free consultation or drop us a line!

Sign up for our newsletter (at the bottom of this page) to stay up to speed on our Upbeat Insight.

Disclaimer: All content in this article is provided for educational, general information, and illustration purposes only. None of the information is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice. Nor is it a recommendation for purchase or sale of any security, or investment advisory services. We encourage you to consult with a financial planner, accountant, and/or legal professional for advice on your specific situation. Read our full disclaimer here.